Austin FC @ Houston Dynamo

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 43.3% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 36.0% (9.1-point probability edge) versus a 30.0% release floor. Projected score: 1.44-1.79 (3.22 total). Model: mls_goal_model soccer-event-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: projected starting XIs → 30,000 seeded 90-minute match-event simulations with shared tempo, game state, player shot allocation, goalkeeper saves, cards/red-card effects, exact scores and regulation draws → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Austin FC 0 @ Houston Dynamo 3

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