MLSJul 25, 2026, 7:40 PM

Real Salt Lake @ Portland Timbers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 3.5 (+100)
total · evidence score 85/100 · 2u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 10.3% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 7.2% (5.2-point probability edge) versus a 4.5% release floor. Projected score: 1.76-1.71 (3.47 total). Model: mls_goal_model soccer-event-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: projected starting XIs → 30,000 seeded 90-minute match-event simulations with shared tempo, game state, player shot allocation, goalkeeper saves, cards/red-card effects, exact scores and regulation draws → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Real Salt Lake 1 @ Portland Timbers 2 · total 3 vs 3.5

Closing line: 3.5

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