NFL AI picks against the spread, totals, and moneyline with confidence ratings, reasoning, and a fully public track record of every settled play.
The NFL model is built around expected points added (EPA) per play, splitting offense and defense by early-down passing, early-down rushing, and explosive-pass rate to find teams the market still grades on box-score noise. We layer in weather (wind over 15 mph and any precipitation collapses totals), the opening-line-to-current-line move, and a quarterback adjustment that re-weights when a starter is ruled out. With only 16-17 games per slate, sample size is small, so the model is deliberately picky — most weeks it stays off more than half the slate and only stakes the games where simulated outcomes diverge from the closing number by at least a touchdown's worth of equity.