Bayer Leverkusen @ FC Augsburg
Published by Slam Wager
Published pick reasoning
5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 12.5% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 8.2% (6.4-point probability edge) versus a 4.5% release floor. Projected score: 1.57-1.56 (3.13 total). Model: bundesliga_goal_model soccer-event-sim-v3.0.0-ts. Inputs: confirmed starting XIs → 30,000 seeded 90-minute match-event simulations with shared tempo, game state, player shot allocation, goalkeeper saves, cards/red-card effects, exact scores and regulation draws → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.
Result notes
Final: Bayer Leverkusen 2 @ FC Augsburg 2 · total 4 vs 3.5
Closing line: 3.5
Available related receipts
Historical audit coverage
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