Lens @ Strasbourg
Published by Slam Wager
Published pick reasoning
5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 12.8% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 9.3% (8.2-point probability edge) versus a 4.5% release floor. Projected score: 2.45-1.55 (4.00 total). Model: ligue1_goal_model soccer-event-sim-v3.0.0-ts. Inputs: confirmed starting XIs → 30,000 seeded 90-minute match-event simulations with shared tempo, game state, player shot allocation, goalkeeper saves, cards/red-card effects, exact scores and regulation draws → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.
Result notes
Final: Lens 1 @ Strasbourg 2 · total 3 vs 3
Closing line: 3
Historical audit coverage
Reviewed original-publication snapshots and visible correction history are available only when they reconcile to a verified archive manifest.
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