Chicago Fire @ New York City FC

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 30.5% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 26.5% (11.8-point probability edge) versus a 6.6% release floor. Projected score: 1.55-1.36 (2.90 total). Model: mls_goal_model soccer-event-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: projected starting XIs → 30,000 seeded 90-minute match-event simulations with shared tempo, game state, player shot allocation, goalkeeper saves, cards/red-card effects, exact scores and regulation draws → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Chicago Fire 1 @ New York City FC 3

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