North Carolina Tar Heels @ West Virginia Mountaineers

Why the AI made this pick

Forge (Scout·Sharp·Model): Sharp 75% strong on market/steam + Scout 65% confirmed. All three agents agree on the Over, with the Quant model showing a 1.9% edge. This consensus is strongly supported by market signals, including significant STEAM from five books on the Over. Additionally, the PUBLIC_BIAS data indicates books are shading lines towards the Over, making it the sharper side. The stake is based on moderate confidence from full agent agreement, tempered by the DATA_CONFIDENCE being low. [SIGNALS FIRED] 3 pattern(s), 2 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 67 (BASIC, expected ROI -1.1%): • ENSEMBLE_AGREE — 58.6% WR (n≈540): Independent models agree on the same side, strengthening the conviction • STEAM_WITH — 56.2% WR (n≈520): Market moved with our side — sharp steam signal • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — 47.0% WR (n≈800): Missing data lowers certainty; keep confidence capped [RISK] YELLOW: Mean historical WR 53.9% ≤ implied 54.5% — thin edge vs price

Result notes

Final: North Carolina Tar Heels 12 @ West Virginia Mountaineers 7 · total 19 vs 14

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