Brazil @ Scotland

Published pick reasoning

The `PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE` signal strongly favors the over, as books are shading prices towards the over side, indicating public money on the under. This signal has a strong historical win rate (75% for 30d/90d). However, the EV for Over 2.5 is -5.3%, which acts as a deterrent. The Elo ratings indicate Brazil has an 81% chance to win, suggesting they could contribute to scoring. Due to the conflicting EV, confidence is capped. Sized at 1u — LEAN pick, borderline confidence. [SIGNALS FIRED] 1 pattern(s), 1 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 64 (BASIC, expected ROI -4.1%): • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — 53.3% WR (n≈690): Totals market is shaded by public behavior, making the opposite side attractive [RISK] YELLOW: Mean historical WR 53.3% ≤ implied 55.6% — thin edge vs price

Result notes

Final: Brazil 3 @ Scotland 0 · total 3 vs 2.5

Available related receipts

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