Cape Verde @ Uruguay

Published pick reasoning

Forge (Scout·Sharp·Model): Model 62% strong on model EV + Scout 55% confirmed. All three specialist agents—SCOUT, SHARP, and MODEL—converge on the Under. The MODEL's projection identifies a 1.7% edge, providing a quantitative backing for this play. This consensus is further supported by market data, specifically the `PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD`, which indicates value on the contrarian Under. The stake is moderate, reflecting full agent agreement but tempered by low `DATA_CONFIDENCE` for the match. [SIGNALS FIRED] 3 pattern(s), 2 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 66 (BASIC, expected ROI -13.4%): • ENSEMBLE_AGREE — 58.6% WR (n≈540): Independent models agree on the same side, strengthening the conviction • PUBLIC_FADE — 53.1% WR (n≈1100): Public is overloaded on the other side, creating contrarian value • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — 47.0% WR (n≈800): Missing data lowers certainty; keep confidence capped [RISK] YELLOW: Mean historical WR 52.9% ≤ implied 61.1% — thin edge vs price

Result notes

Final: Cape Verde 2 @ Uruguay 2 · total 4 vs 2.5

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