South Korea @ Mexico

Published pick reasoning

Forge (Scout·Sharp·Model): Scout 70% strong on matchup/injury read + Model 64% confirmed. This pick is driven by consensus between SCOUT and MODEL on the Over 2.5. Both agents referenced the strong 'LINE_SHOP_VALUE' signal, which has a 70.9% historical win rate, suggesting the +122 odds offer value. MODEL also quantifies a 2.2% edge on the Over. Confidence is moderated due to the 'DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW' tag and conflicting internal signals cited by the agents (ENSEMBLE_SPLIT vs ENSEMBLE_AGREE). The stake is moderate, reflecting the agent agreement and positive model edge, but is held back by the low data confidence and signal conflict. [SIGNALS FIRED] 4 pattern(s), 2 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 62 (BASIC, expected ROI 14.2%): • LINE_SHOP_VALUE — 53.0% WR (n≈900): Multiple books disagree enough that price shopping creates edge • ENSEMBLE_AGREE — 58.6% WR (n≈540): Independent models agree on the same side, strengthening the conviction • ENSEMBLE_SPLIT — 47.2% WR (n≈500): Model disagreement means the edge is less stable than it first appears • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — 47.0% WR (n≈800): Missing data lowers certainty; keep confidence capped

Result notes

Final: South Korea 0 @ Mexico 1 · total 1 vs 2.5

Available related receipts

• WORLDCUP

  Switzerland @ Argentina

  Over 2.5 2.5 · 7/11/2026
  win
• WORLDCUP

  England @ Norway

  Over 2.5 2.5 · 7/11/2026
  loss
• WORLDCUP

  Belgium @ Spain

  Over 2.5 2.5 · 7/10/2026
  win
• WORLDCUP

  Belgium @ Spain

  Spain -1 -1 · 7/10/2026
  push
• WORLDCUP

  Morocco @ France

  Under 2.5 2.5 · 7/9/2026
  win
• WORLDCUP

  Colombia @ Switzerland

  Under 2.5 2.5 · 7/7/2026
  win