Iraq at Senegal: Iraq +2 (-125) lost — WORLDCUP AI Pick Recap

Recap of our WORLDCUP AI spread pick on Iraq at Senegal. The play (Iraq +2 at -125, 3★ confidence) lost.

Why we made this WORLDCUP spread pick

Forge (Scout·Sharp·Model): Sharp 65% strong on market/steam. Sharp makes a strong case for Iraq +2, noting Pinnacle's fair line of Senegal -0.5, which creates significant value on the +2 spread. This pick is supported by the historically winning DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW signal (61.9% in WORLDCUP), which comfortably clears the -125 break-even of 55.6%. Confidence is set at 65, reflecting the analyst's conviction and signal strength against a conflicting ELO-based expert read. [SIGNALS FIRED] 1 pattern(s), 1 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 57 (PASS, expected ROI -15.4%): • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — 47.0% WR (n≈800): Missing data lowers certainty; keep confidence capped [RISK] YELLOW: Mean historical WR 47.0% ≤ implied 55.6% — thin edge vs price