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Pick recaps & analysis

Available settled pick recaps, with their published context and result.

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Player prop research archive

Educational player-prop research currently represented in the archive—not a promise that a prop pick will be released.

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MLB
loss
8/29/2026

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Miami Marlins (-103) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Miami Marlins at -103 lost. 4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 8.1% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (11.6% raw projected EV) and a 5.9-point probability ed

MLB
loss
8/29/2026

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians: Under 8 (-114) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 8 at -114 lost. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 7.5% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (10.4% raw projected EV) and a 6.0-point probability ed

LIGUE1
push
8/29/2026

Lens at Strasbourg: Over 3 (-111) pushed — LIGUE1 AI Pick Recap

The published LIGUE1 selection Over 3 at -111 pushed. 5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 12.8% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 9.3% (8.2-point probabil

BUNDESLIGA
win
8/29/2026

Borussia Mönchengladbach at RB Leipzig: Under 3.5 (-135) cashed — BUNDESLIGA AI Pick Recap

The published BUNDESLIGA selection Under 3.5 at -135 cashed. 4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 9.4% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 5.5% (5.4-point probabili

EPL
loss
💀 Bad Beat
8/29/2026

💀 BAD BEAT — Nottingham Forest at Liverpool: Under 3 (+109) lost — EPL AI Pick Recap

Bad beat: Final total 4 — landed 1 point from the 3 line.. 4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 10.3% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 6.6%

Bad beat: Final total 4 — landed 1 point from the 3 line.

EPL
win
8/29/2026

Newcastle United at Tottenham Hotspur: Newcastle United (+225) cashed — EPL AI Pick Recap

The published EPL selection Newcastle United at +225 cashed. 5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 23.7% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 16.4% (7.3-point probabi

MLB
win
8/29/2026

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals: Pittsburgh Pirates (+112) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Pittsburgh Pirates at +112 cashed. 4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 9.6% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (14.9% raw projected EV) and a 7.0-point probability ed

MLB
push
8/29/2026

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals: Under 8 (-105) pushed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 8 at -105 pushed. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 7.2% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (10.9% raw projected EV) and a 6.1-point probability ed

MLB
loss
8/29/2026

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Under 9 (-110) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 9 at -110 lost. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.9% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (8.9% raw projected EV) and a 5.2-point probability edg

MLB
win
8/29/2026

Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers: Blake Snell Under 17.5 Outs (+135) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Blake Snell Under 17.5 Outs at +135 cashed. SLAM model edge: projected 14.919 outs, 50% to hit vs +135. Edge 7pt, EV 16.347838891868538%.

MLB
win
8/29/2026

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees: Under 8 (-110) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 8 at -110 cashed. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.5% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (8.8% raw projected EV) and a 5.0-point probability edg

MLB
win
8/29/2026

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees: Boston Red Sox (+110) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Boston Red Sox at +110 cashed. 4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 8.9% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (12.3% raw projected EV) and a 5.9-point probability ed

UFC
win
8/29/2026

Song Yadong at Umar Nurmagomedov: Song Yadong (+350) cashed — UFC AI Pick Recap

The published UFC selection Song Yadong at +350 cashed. UFC production champion ufc-joint-fight-sim-v1.0.0. One frozen 5-round joint simulation priced winner, duration, method and winning-round outcomes together agai

UFC
win
8/29/2026

Yan Xiaonan at Denise Gomes: Denise Gomes (+142) cashed — UFC AI Pick Recap

The published UFC selection Denise Gomes at +142 cashed. UFC production champion ufc-joint-fight-sim-v1.0.0. One frozen 3-round joint simulation priced winner, duration, method and winning-round outcomes together agai

UFC
win
8/29/2026

Alex Perez at Sumudaerji: Over 2.5 rounds (+104) cashed — UFC AI Pick Recap

The published UFC selection Over 2.5 rounds at +104 cashed. UFC production champion ufc-joint-fight-sim-v1.0.0. One frozen 3-round joint simulation priced winner, duration, method and winning-round outcomes together agai

MLB
win
8/28/2026

Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers: Under 7.5 (-105) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 7.5 at -105 cashed. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 5.4% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (11.7% raw projected EV) and a 6.0-point probability ed

MLB
loss
8/28/2026

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Miami Marlins (-134) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Miami Marlins at -134 lost. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.4% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (7.7% raw projected EV) and a 4.4-point probability edg

TENNIS
win
8/27/2026

Ignacio Buse at Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Ignacio Buse (+104) cashed — TENNIS AI Pick Recap

The published TENNIS selection Ignacio Buse at +104 cashed. ATP production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

TENNIS
loss
8/25/2026

Rinky Hijikata at Raphael Collignon: Raphael Collignon (-120) lost — TENNIS AI Pick Recap

The published TENNIS selection Raphael Collignon at -120 lost. ATP production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

WTA
loss
8/25/2026

Anna Bondar at Cristina Bucsa: Anna Bondar (-126) lost — WTA AI Pick Recap

The published WTA selection Anna Bondar at -126 lost. WTA production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

TENNIS
win
8/25/2026

Aleksandar Kovacevic at Luca Van Assche: Aleksandar Kovacevic (+127) cashed — TENNIS AI Pick Recap

The published TENNIS selection Aleksandar Kovacevic at +127 cashed. ATP production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

TENNIS
win
8/25/2026

Luciano Darderi at Mattia Bellucci: Luciano Darderi (-104) cashed — TENNIS AI Pick Recap

The published TENNIS selection Luciano Darderi at -104 cashed. ATP production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

TENNIS
win
8/25/2026

Ignacio Buse at Adam Walton: Ignacio Buse (+145) cashed — TENNIS AI Pick Recap

The published TENNIS selection Ignacio Buse at +145 cashed. ATP production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

WTA
win
8/25/2026

Donna Vekic at Diane Parry: Diane Parry (+139) cashed — WTA AI Pick Recap

The published WTA selection Diane Parry at +139 cashed. WTA production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

TENNIS
win
8/24/2026

Stefanos Tsitsipas at Jenson Brooksby: Stefanos Tsitsipas (-154) cashed — TENNIS AI Pick Recap

The published TENNIS selection Stefanos Tsitsipas at -154 cashed. ATP production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

WTA
win
8/24/2026

Ann Li at Camila Osorio: Ann Li (+105) cashed — WTA AI Pick Recap

The published WTA selection Ann Li at +105 cashed. WTA production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

WTA
loss
8/23/2026

Jessica Pegula at Coco Gauff: Jessica Pegula (+117) lost — WTA AI Pick Recap

The published WTA selection Jessica Pegula at +117 lost. WTA production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

MLB
push
8/23/2026

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers: Under 8 (-115) pushed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 8 at -115 pushed. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.2% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (11.1% raw projected EV) and a 6.4-point probability ed

MLB
loss
8/23/2026

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals: Detroit Tigers (-108) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Detroit Tigers at -108 lost. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 5.3% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (9.8% raw projected EV) and a 5.1-point probability edg

MLB
win
8/23/2026

New York Mets at Chicago White Sox: Under 8 (-102) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 8 at -102 cashed. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 5.3% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (11.2% raw projected EV) and a 6.1-point probability ed

MLB
loss
8/22/2026

Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres: Under 8 (-100) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 8 at -100 lost. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 6.2% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (11.6% raw projected EV) and a 6.3-point probability ed

UFC
win
8/22/2026

Anthony Hernandez at Gregory Rodrigues: Gregory Rodrigues (+148) cashed — UFC AI Pick Recap

The published UFC selection Gregory Rodrigues at +148 cashed. UFC production champion ufc-joint-fight-sim-v1.0.0. One frozen 5-round joint simulation priced winner, duration, method and winning-round outcomes together agai

UFC
loss
8/22/2026

Roman Dolidze at Reinier de Ridder: Roman Dolidze (+269) lost — UFC AI Pick Recap

The published UFC selection Roman Dolidze at +269 lost. UFC production champion ufc-joint-fight-sim-v1.0.0. One frozen 3-round joint simulation priced winner, duration, method and winning-round outcomes together agai

UFC
win
8/22/2026

Mason Jones at MarQuel Mederos: MarQuel Mederos (+279) cashed — UFC AI Pick Recap

The published UFC selection MarQuel Mederos at +279 cashed. UFC production champion ufc-joint-fight-sim-v1.0.0. One frozen 3-round joint simulation priced winner, duration, method and winning-round outcomes together agai

UFC
loss
8/22/2026

Kennedy Nzechukwu at Shamil Gaziev: Kennedy Nzechukwu (+124) lost — UFC AI Pick Recap

The published UFC selection Kennedy Nzechukwu at +124 lost. UFC production champion ufc-joint-fight-sim-v1.0.0. One frozen 3-round joint simulation priced winner, duration, method and winning-round outcomes together agai

MLB
win
8/22/2026

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers: Under 8 (-110) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 8 at -110 cashed. 4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 10.1% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (15.4% raw projected EV) and a 8.7-point probability e

MLB
win
8/21/2026

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers: Under 7.5 (-115) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 7.5 at -115 cashed. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 7.1% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (14.5% raw projected EV) and a 7.8-point probability ed

WTA
loss
8/21/2026

Marta Kostyuk at Coco Gauff: Marta Kostyuk (+119) lost — WTA AI Pick Recap

The published WTA selection Marta Kostyuk at +119 lost. WTA production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

MLB
loss
8/21/2026

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals: Detroit Tigers (+100) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Detroit Tigers at +100 lost. 4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 9.6% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (14.3% raw projected EV) and a 7.1-point probability ed

MLB
win
8/21/2026

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees: Under 7 (-108) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 7 at -108 cashed. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.5% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (8.4% raw projected EV) and a 5.0-point probability edg

WTA
loss
8/21/2026

Madison Keys at Sara Bejlek: Madison Keys (-207) lost — WTA AI Pick Recap

The published WTA selection Madison Keys at -207 lost. WTA production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

MLB
win
8/20/2026

Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers: Under 7.5 (-110) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 7.5 at -110 cashed. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.8% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (12.6% raw projected EV) and a 6.6-point probability ed

WTA
win
8/20/2026

Jessica Pegula at Amanda Anisimova: Jessica Pegula (-128) cashed — WTA AI Pick Recap

The published WTA selection Jessica Pegula at -128 cashed. WTA production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

MLB
win
8/19/2026

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros: Under 8.5 (-107) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 8.5 at -107 cashed. 4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 10.9% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (16.8% raw projected EV) and a 8.7-point probability e

MLB
win
8/19/2026

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles: Under 9 (+102) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 9 at +102 cashed. 4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 8.0% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (12.1% raw projected EV) and a 6.7-point probability ed

MLB
loss
💀 Bad Beat
8/19/2026

💀 BAD BEAT — St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Under 8.5 (-114) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

Bad beat: Final total 9 — landed 0.5 points from the 8.5 line.. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.5% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (8.8% raw projected EV) and a 4.7-p

Bad beat: Final total 9 — landed 0.5 points from the 8.5 line.

MLB
win
8/19/2026

San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians: Under 7.5 (-117) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 7.5 at -117 cashed. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.2% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (8.8% raw projected EV) and a 4.7-point probability edg

WTA
win
8/19/2026

Elena Rybakina at Diana Shnaider: Elena Rybakina (-226) cashed — WTA AI Pick Recap

The published WTA selection Elena Rybakina at -226 cashed. WTA production champion tennis-point-set-match-sim-v1.0.2-publication-safe. One frozen 3-set joint simulation priced this market against an exact same-book Pinn

MLB
loss
💀 Bad Beat
8/19/2026

💀 BAD BEAT — Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins: Under 9 (-115) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

Bad beat: Final total 10 — landed 1 point from the 9 line.. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 6.1% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (9.8% raw projected EV) and a 5.8-p

Bad beat: Final total 10 — landed 1 point from the 9 line.

MLB
loss
8/18/2026

Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox: Under 7.5 (+100) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

The published MLB selection Under 7.5 at +100 lost. 3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.2% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (8.9% raw projected EV) and a 4.5-point probability edg