Boston Red Sox at New York Mets: New York Mets -1.5 (+155) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap

Recap of our MLB AI spread pick on Boston Red Sox at New York Mets. The play (New York Mets -1.5 at +155, 3★ confidence) lost.

Matchup

Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets

Pick

New York Mets -1.5

Odds

+155

Confidence

★★★☆☆

Why we made this MLB spread pick

The Mets offer a slight EV despite the Red Sox having better recent form. Sonny Gray, pitching for the Red Sox, is having a strong season (ERA 2.61, WHIP 1.10). Nolan McLean for the Mets (ERA 3.73, WHIP 1.12) is also having a decent year despite a tough last outing. The Mets have a +0.2% EV at +155 based on the Pinnacle fair line of +154 (39.3%) for Mets -1.5. Sized at 1u — slight EV with both teams having fresh bullpens. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=487 / 54.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_SOFT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=94 / 47.9% WR / unproven • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=6 / 33.3% WR / unproven / context-derived • EV_2PCT — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=21 / 33.3% WR / toxic_blocked • EV_3PCT — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=8 / 50.0% WR / unproven • EV_5PCT — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=4 / 50.0% WR / unproven