Daily MLB AI picks with starting-pitcher and bullpen-adjusted projections. See today's plays, every settled result, and tracked ROI for baseball.
Baseball is a starter and bullpen sport, so our MLB model begins with each pitcher's FIP and xFIP weighted by recent form, then applies a park factor and a same-handedness lineup adjustment using the projected batting order the moment lineups are posted. Bullpen leverage matters as much as the starter once you cross five innings, so we re-project the late-game win probability separately and compare it to the live moneyline. Totals are graded against a park-and-weather Monte Carlo (wind direction at Wrigley and Coors alone moves more lines than people think). We push almost everything through first-five-inning markets when the bullpen is rested but unreliable.