Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.1% exact-price projected EV and a 2.6-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The -1.1% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 4.28-3.97 (8.25 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Kansas City Royals 5 @ Houston Astros 2 · margin +3 vs 1.5

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