MLBSep 17, 2026, 5:05 PM

Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 7.5 (+100)
total · evidence score 90/100 · 3u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 12.3% exact-price projected EV and a 6.2-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The 5.7% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 3.85-3.28 (7.13 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Boston Red Sox 4 @ Texas Rangers 3 · total 7 vs 7.5

Closing line: 8.5

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Historical audit coverage

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