Sports betting glossary
Every term you'll meet on a True Strength pick, a game page or a sportsbook, in plain words, with a Slam Wager example where the product shows it.
A
American odds
Also: moneyline odds, US odds
The US way of writing a price. +150 means a $100 bet wins $150; −150 means you bet $150 to win $100. The sign says who the favorite is, not whether the bet is good.
On Slam Wager Every True Strength pick shows its posted price in American odds, such as −110 or +135.
ATS (against the spread)
Also: against the spread, cover
Whether a team beat the point spread, not just the game. A 7-point favorite that wins by 10 covers; one that wins by 3 does not.
B
Back-to-back
Also: B2B
A team playing on consecutive days. It matters in the NBA, WNBA, college basketball and the NHL, where the second night tends to cost a team.
On Slam Wager True Strength prices back-to-backs from the whole league's games, and an NBA spread backing a tired team waits for the game-day injury report.
Bankroll
The money you've set aside for betting and nothing else. Sizing every bet as a small, fixed share of it is what keeps a losing run survivable.
Break-even chance
Also: break-even rate
How often a bet has to win to make no money at its price. At −110 it's 52.4%. A bet is only worth making if its real chance is higher.
On Slam Wager Each game's Simulations page shows the break-even chance beside True Strength's own chance.
C
Closing line
Also: close, closing price
The last price before a game starts. It has absorbed the most information and money, so it's the market's best guess.
On Slam Wager Slam Wager uses Pinnacle's last pregame price as the close, or the close at the book the pick was posted from when Pinnacle's isn't available.
Closing line value (CLV)
Also: CLV
How much better your price was than the closing line, as a difference in win chance. Taking +110 when the fair close is 50% is about +2.4% CLV. It's a sign of a good price, not proof of profit.
On Slam Wager CLV appears in the members' True Strength record table, by sport and market.
Contingent pick
A pick that depends on whether one key player plays. The card says which way it assumes and what the pick becomes otherwise, until his status is settled.
On Slam Wager True Strength posts a pick as contingent when an uncertain player would swing the projection by 1.5 points in football or basketball, 0.3 runs or 0.25 goals.
D
Decimal odds
The total paid back on a 1-unit bet, stake included. 2.50 returns 2.50 units (1.50 profit). The same price as +150 in American odds.
E
Edge
Your chance of winning minus the break-even chance at the price. Positive edge means the price is in your favor.
On Slam Wager A game's Simulations page shows True Strength's edge on every side, spread and total.
Expected value (EV)
Also: EV, +EV, positive EV
What a bet earns on average if you could make it over and over: chance of winning × profit, minus chance of losing × stake. A 55% bet at −110 is +5.0% EV.
On Slam Wager True Strength posts a pick only when its EV at the best available price is 2% or more.
F
Fair price
Also: fair odds, fair line
The price a bet should have if a given win chance is right, with no margin added. A sportsbook price better than the fair price is value.
On Slam Wager Each game's Simulations page lists True Strength's fair price next to the book's.
Favorite
Also: chalk
The side expected to win, priced with a minus sign on the moneyline or giving points on the spread. Heavy favorites are called chalk.
On Slam Wager True Strength never posts a moneyline at −200 or chalkier.
Futures
Bets on something settled later in the season, such as a champion or a season win total. Money is tied up until the market settles.
H
Handicap
Also: Asian handicap, goal line
Soccer's version of a spread: a team starts with goals added or taken away. Quarter lines split the stake across two lines.
On Slam Wager Soccer has a draw, so True Strength's soccer picks are handicaps and totals, never a two-way moneyline.
Hook
The half point on a spread or total, like −3.5 instead of −3. It removes the chance of a push.
I
Implied probability
Also: odds-implied probability
The win chance a price implies. For −150 it's 150 ÷ 250 = 60%; for +150 it's 100 ÷ 250 = 40%. Both sides together add up to more than 100% because of the juice.
J
Juice
Also: vig, vigorish, hold, sportsbook margin
The sportsbook's built-in cut. Two sides at −110 each imply 52.4%, 104.8% together; the extra 4.8% is the book's margin.
K
Kelly criterion
Also: Kelly
A formula for the share of a bankroll that grows it fastest for a given edge. It's aggressive, so most bettors use a fraction of it.
On Slam Wager Each game's Simulations page shows a quarter Kelly stake for every bet.
Key number
A margin games land on unusually often, such as 3 and 7 in the NFL. Moving a spread across one matters more than moving it elsewhere.
L
Line movement
Also: line move, price movement
A change in a spread, total or price between two moments. It shows what the market did, not who bet or why.
On Slam Wager Each game's Line Movement page shows the history across books and when the sharp books moved first.
Line shopping
Also: best price
Checking several sportsbooks and taking the best price or line for the same bet. Small differences add up over many bets.
On Slam Wager True Strength compares every pick with the best price across the live sportsbooks.
M
Moneyline
Also: ML
A bet on who wins the game outright, with no points involved.
On Slam Wager True Strength moneylines are capped at +500 (+250 in MLB) and never posted at −200 or chalkier.
Monte Carlo simulation
Also: simulation, sims
Playing a game thousands of times from a projection, with realistic randomness, and counting how the results land.
On Slam Wager Each game's Simulations page plays it 20,000 times from True Strength's projected score, using how far real results have landed from its projections.
N
No-vig price
Also: no-vig line, devigged price
A market's price with the sportsbook's margin taken out, so both sides add to exactly 100%. It's the market's own fair estimate.
On Slam Wager True Strength sizes stars from a blend of one third its own chance and two thirds the no-vig chance.
O
Over/under (O/U)
Also: total, totals, O/U
A bet on whether the combined score lands over or under a number set by the book.
On Slam Wager True Strength only posts the side of a total its own projection lands on.
P
Parlay
One bet that ties several picks together; every leg must win. The payout grows, and so does the book's margin, which compounds with each leg.
On Slam Wager True Strength posts single bets only, never parlays or teasers.
Pass
Choosing not to bet a game because no side is priced well enough.
On Slam Wager When no side reaches 2% EV inside the price rules, True Strength passes. Passed games are still settled with their final score so the projections are checked on every game.
Player prop
Also: prop, props, prop bet
A bet on one player's stat line, such as points, rebounds or strikeouts, over or under a number.
On Slam Wager True Strength player props keep their own record, separate from game picks, and each prop market is switched on only after it has been tested.
Puck line
Hockey's spread, almost always 1.5 goals.
On Slam Wager True Strength prices the puck line from its win chance through a fit on past seasons, because one-goal games and empty-netters decide it.
Push
A bet that lands exactly on the line, like a 3-point win against −3. The stake is returned; it's neither a win nor a loss.
On Slam Wager True Strength counts the chance of a push on whole-number lines when it prices a bet.
R
Record
Also: graded record, track record
Every graded pick's wins, losses and pushes, with units won or lost. A short record says little; luck dominates for hundreds of picks.
On Slam Wager Members' True Strength record counts every pick at a flat 1 unit, with the result at Slam's 1–3 unit sizing beside it, by sport and market.
ROI
Also: return on investment
Units won for every unit risked. +10% means 1 unit back for every 10 bet.
On Slam Wager The members' record table shows ROI by sport and market.
Run line
Baseball's spread, almost always 1.5 runs.
S
Sharp book
Also: market maker, sharp
A sportsbook that takes big bets from the sharpest bettors and moves its prices on them, such as Pinnacle. Its prices tend to be the most accurate.
On Slam Wager A game's Line Movement page flags when a sharp book moved first or disagrees with the everyday books. It describes the market; it isn't a pick.
Sharpe ratio
A measure from investing: average profit per unit of risk. Higher means more return for the swings you take.
On Slam Wager Each game's Simulations page shows a Sharpe ratio for every bet.
Spread
Also: point spread, line
The points a favorite gives and an underdog gets to even out a game. −7 must win by more than 7; +7 can lose by fewer than 7.
Standard deviation
Also: σ, sigma
How far a typical result lands from the average. Bigger means less predictable.
On Slam Wager True Strength measures each league's standard deviation from how far real games have landed from its projections, rather than assuming one.
Stars
Also: star rating
A True Strength pick's stake: 1★ is 1 unit, 2★ is 2 units, 3★ is 3 units. They are sized from a market-blended EV and are not a win probability.
On Slam Wager 3★ needs a blended EV of 8% or more and 2★ 4% or more. MLB and NFL picks are always 1★.
Steam
Also: steam move
Several sportsbooks moving the same way within a short time, usually after a big bet or real news. By the time you see it, most of the value is usually gone.
On Slam Wager A game's Line Movement page labels steam when it happens. It describes the market; it isn't a pick.
T
Team financial rules
Also: salary cap, luxury tax
Each league's rules for how contracts count against team spending: salary caps, payroll taxes and roster limits.
True Strength
Slam Wager's pick engine. It rates every team against every opponent it played, with who actually played, projects tonight's score, and posts a pick only when a sportsbook price is wrong by enough.
On Slam Wager Every Slam Wager pick, free pick and graded record comes from True Strength.
U
Underdog
Also: dog
The side expected to lose, priced with a plus sign on the moneyline or getting points on the spread.
On Slam Wager A True Strength moneyline of +300 or longer needs at least a 30% market-blended chance.
Unit
Also: betting unit, 1u
Your own fixed bet size, usually 1–2% of a bankroll. Records in units compare fairly whatever each person bets.
On Slam Wager True Strength picks are 1, 2 or 3 units, shown as stars.
V
Variance
The natural swing of results around what's expected. A good bettor can lose for weeks; a bad one can win for weeks.
W
Win probability
Also: win chance
The chance a side wins, or covers, or goes over. A model's win probability is an estimate, and can be wrong.
On Slam Wager True Strength turns its projected score into a win probability for every side using its own measured error, then pulls it toward 50% where past calls ran too sure.
Odds and EV calculator
Convert a valid American price and, optionally, compare it with your own stated probability assumption. The output is arithmetic, not a prediction or recommendation.
- Break-even chance
- 52.4%
- Decimal odds
- 1.909
- EV per 1 unit
- +5.0%
Probability assumptions can be wrong. Positive calculated EV does not guarantee profit, and it must never be used to justify chasing losses or exceeding a preset entertainment budget.