Fair price
A fair price is the price a bet should carry if a stated win probability is right, with no sportsbook margin added; a book price better than it is value.
On Slam Wager Each game's Simulations page lists True Strength's fair price next to the book's.
What it means
Turn a probability into a fair American price: at 60%, the fair price is -150; at 40%, it is +150. A book offering -130 on a 60% side is paying more than fair, so the bet has positive expected value.
Each game's Simulations page lists True Strength's fair price for every side, spread and total beside the sportsbook's price, from the same projection and measured spread of outcomes its picks use.
A fair price is only as good as the probability behind it. Where past results showed the model running too sure, True Strength pulls its chances toward 50% before any price comparison.
Limits and responsible use
A fair price built from a wrong probability is wrong, and the price you can actually get may differ from the one shown.
Treat a fair price as a way to judge a price, not a promise about the result. Keep stakes inside a preset entertainment budget.