Expected value
Expected value estimates the average profit or loss per wager under a stated win-probability assumption and quoted payout; it is not a prediction of one result.
On Slam Wager True Strength posts a pick only when its EV at the best available price is 2% or more.
What it means
Per unit staked, expected value equals win probability multiplied by net profit when winning, minus loss probability multiplied by the unit at risk. A 55% chance at -110 is 0.55 x 0.909 - 0.45, about +5.0%.
A positive calculation depends entirely on the probability input and price being accurate. It does not guarantee a profit in any sample.
True Strength posts a pick only when a side's EV at the best available price is at least 2%, and passes on the game otherwise.
Limits and responsible use
Model error, stale prices, limits, void rules, correlation, and estimation uncertainty can make a displayed estimate incomplete or wrong.
Do not use an EV label to justify chasing, borrowing, or exceeding a preset limit. Recheck the exact market and live price before acting.