New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.2% exact-price projected EV and a 2.3-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The -1.7% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 3.92-3.32 (7.24 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: New York Yankees 3 @ Arizona Diamondbacks 5 · total 8 vs 7.5

Available related receipts

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  Under 8.5 8.5 · 9/19/2026
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  Under 8 8 · 9/19/2026
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• MLB

  Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

  Chicago Cubs -1.5 -1.5 · 9/19/2026
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• MLB

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  Over 7.5 7.5 · 9/19/2026
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• MLB

  New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks

  Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 1.5 · 9/18/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres

  Under 7.5 7.5 · 9/18/2026
  loss