Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 12.9% exact-price projected EV and a 5.9-point probability edge versus a 4.7% release floor. The 7.6% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 6.11-4.08 (10.19 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Chicago Cubs 5 @ Cincinnati Reds 2 · margin +3 vs -1.5

Available related receipts

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