San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 7.0% exact-price projected EV and a 3.7-point probability edge versus a 4.2% release floor. The 2.1% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 6.11-4.89 (11.00 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: San Diego Padres 9 @ Colorado Rockies 3 · total 12 vs 11

Available related receipts

• MLB

  San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

  Over 10.5 10.5 · 9/17/2026
  win
• MLB

  Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

  Kansas City Royals +1.5 1.5 · 9/16/2026
  win
• MLB

  San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

  San Diego Padres -1.5 -1.5 · 9/17/2026
  win
• MLB

  Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

  Over 8 8 · 9/17/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

  Under 8.5 8.5 · 9/17/2026
  win
• MLB

  Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers

  Under 7.5 7.5 · 9/17/2026
  win