Iva Jović at Jessica Pegula: Under 21.5 (-105) lost — WTA AI Pick Recap

Recap of our WTA AI total pick on Iva Jović at Jessica Pegula. The play (Under 21.5 at -105, 4★ confidence) lost.

Matchup

Iva Jović @ Jessica Pegula

Pick

Under 21.5

Odds

-105

Confidence

★★★★☆

Why we made this WTA total pick

The pick leans on the clear historical dominance of Jessica Pegula in this matchup. Pegula holds a 2-0 head-to-head record against Jović, with the last win coming recently. This lopsided H2H is a strong indicator for a one-sided match, favoring the Under. Further, Pegula is in superior recent form (7-3 L10 vs 5-5). The line has also seen slight movement toward the Under since opening. The main risk is the Pinnacle fair line, which slightly favors the Over, creating a minor market conflict. Sized at 1u — confidence is tempered by the market disagreement, but the H2H and form edge is clear. [SIGNALS USED] • TENNIS_FORM_EDGE — WTA / WTA/BACKFILL_3Y~full-weight(exempt) / n=1111 / 69.6% WR / healthy • TENNIS_SURFACE_EDGE — WTA / WTA/BACKFILL_3Y~full-weight(exempt) / n=921 / 64.9% WR / healthy • CLV_MULTIPLIER_APPLIED — WTA / ALL/L30 / n=58 / 63.2% WR / healthy • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — WTA / ALL/L30 / n=28 / 53.6% WR / unproven • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — WTA / WTA/L30 / n=9 / 55.6% WR / unproven • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — WTA / WTA/L30 / n=1 / 100.0% WR / unproven