Spain at Portugal: Over 2.5 (-120) lost — WORLDCUP AI Pick Recap

Recap of our WORLDCUP AI total pick on Spain at Portugal. The play (Over 2.5 at -120, 5★ confidence) lost.

Matchup

Spain @ Portugal

Pick

Over 2.5

Odds

-120

Confidence

★★★★★

Why we made this WORLDCUP total pick

The model indicates minor value on the Over 2.5 at -120, with Pinnacle Fair at Over 2.5 -116 (53.8%). The public is heavily on the Under (PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE) with a WR of 56.3% for WORLDCUP, suggesting the book is shading towards the Over. The historical CLV for PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE is 1.01%. The data confidence is 89/100, so no penalty there. Both teams have shown strong offensive form recently (Spain L5 3-0-1, Portugal L5 2-0-2), and our side benefits from a +4 for this signal type, though it doesn't quite meet a formal 'form edge' criteria. Sized at 3u — confidence 76, due to a combination of market influence and a slight lean from the fair line. [SIGNALS USED] • PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD — WORLDCUP / ALL/LIFETIME / n=61 / 55.7% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — WORLDCUP / WORLDCUP/L30 / n=48 / 56.3% WR / unproven • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — WORLDCUP / ALL/L30 / n=45 / 52.3% WR / unproven • CLV_MULTIPLIER_APPLIED — WORLDCUP / WORLDCUP/L30 / n=24 / 65.2% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_FADE — WORLDCUP / WORLDCUP/L30 / n=17 / 52.9% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_ML_DISAGREE — WORLDCUP / WORLDCUP/L30 / n=16 / 56.3% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_CONTRARIAN_EV — WORLDCUP / WORLDCUP/L30 / n=15 / 53.3% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_BIAS_UNDER_OVERLOAD — WORLDCUP / WORLDCUP/L30 / n=14 / 57.1% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_RIDE — WORLDCUP / WORLDCUP/L30 / n=14 / 71.4% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_HEAVY_ON_OUR_SIDE — WORLDCUP / WORLDCUP/L30 / n=14 / 71.4% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_HEAVY_NO_EDGE — WORLDCUP / WORLDCUP/L30 / n=13 / 69.2% WR / healthy • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_TOTAL — WORLDCUP / WORLDCUP/L30 / n=13 / 61.5% WR / unproven • +7 more signal tag(s)