Newcastle United @ Tottenham Hotspur

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 23.7% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 16.4% (7.3-point probability edge) versus a 11.0% release floor. Projected score: 1.64-1.34 (2.98 total). Model: epl_goal_model soccer-event-sim-v3.0.0-ts. Inputs: confirmed starting XIs → 30,000 seeded 90-minute match-event simulations with shared tempo, game state, player shot allocation, goalkeeper saves, cards/red-card effects, exact scores and regulation draws → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Newcastle United 2 @ Tottenham Hotspur 0

Available related receipts

• EPL

  Nottingham Forest @ Liverpool

  Under 3 3 · 8/29/2026
  loss