Nottingham Forest @ Liverpool
Published by Slam Wager
Published pick reasoning
4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 10.3% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 6.6% (6.2-point probability edge) versus a 4.5% release floor. Projected score: 1.37-1.52 (2.89 total). Model: epl_goal_model soccer-event-sim-v3.0.0-ts. Inputs: confirmed starting XIs → 30,000 seeded 90-minute match-event simulations with shared tempo, game state, player shot allocation, goalkeeper saves, cards/red-card effects, exact scores and regulation draws → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.
Bad Beat
Final total 4 — landed 1 point from the 3 line.
Result notes
Final: Nottingham Forest 2 @ Liverpool 2 · total 4 vs 3
Closing line: 3.25
Available related receipts
Historical audit coverage
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