MLBJul 10, 2026, 4:41 PM

Athletics @ Chicago White Sox

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Chicago White Sox (-154)
moneyline · evidence score 64/100 · 2u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

The Chicago White Sox are a strong play at -154 despite a -3% EV. Their starting pitcher, Sean Burke, has a significantly lower ERA (3.56) and WHIP (1.22) over 98.2 IP, compared to Jacob Lopez's 7.04 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over 53.2 IP. Additionally, Burke has a much better K/9 (9.67 vs 7.04) and BB/9 (3.01 vs 5.70). The Athletics' bullpen is TIRED (190 pitches in last 2 days), and the Athletics have a poor L10 record (1-9) with high RA/g (6.7). The line velocity has moved in favor of the White Sox. Sized at 2u — confidence 64, backing the White Sox with a dominant pitching advantage and a fatigued opposition bullpen and poor team form. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1876 / 48.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SP_HOT_FORM — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=636 / 52.1% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME / n=13 / 55.8% WR / unproven • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=256 / 44.7% WR / toxic_fadeable • +1 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Athletics 1 @ Chicago White Sox 14

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