Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Published pick reasoning

Starting confidence is 60. The DATA_CONFIDENCE is 90. Pinnacle fair line is Over 8 -103 (50.7%) / Under 8 +103 (49.3%). There is no EV edge for our side. There are no strong market signals (RLM, Steam) either way. The line velocity is stalled. The Atlanta Braves bullpen is TIRED with 188 pitches/9.2 IP in the last 2 days. This could contribute to more runs for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh Pirates' team batting against RHP has a strong OPS of .788, suggesting they will hit well against Hurston Waldrep (RHP) for Atlanta. Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates) has an ERA of 3.62 with 97 IP while Hurston Waldrep (Atlanta Braves) has 3.68 ERA over 7.1 IP. Waldrep is a small sample size SP, so the true ERA is uncertain. PNC Park has a Run 92 and HR 90 index, which is pitcher friendly. The HP Umpire Vic Carapazza is neutral. Atlanta Braves are on mild fatigue (B2B, 515mi — away). Based on the analysis, confidence is currently 60, as there are conflicting signals that cancel each other out. Priced at 1u — confidence 60, with no clear edge and some conflicting signals. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1876 / 48.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1850 / 51.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1474 / 53.0% WR / healthy • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1330 / 54.4% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=752 / 49.6% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_TEAM_BIG_VS_RHP_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=243 / 53.1% WR / healthy • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=58 / 56.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=210 / 45.4% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_BP_GASSED_OPP — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=80 / 46.8% WR / unproven • +3 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Atlanta Braves 4 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 12 · total 16 vs 8

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