Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

Why the AI made this pick

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 9.4% EV (6.9-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% risk-adjusted release floor. Projected score: 3.68-5.07 (8.75 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.6.0-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Baltimore Orioles 3 @ Boston Red Sox 6 · total 9 vs 9.5

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