MLBJul 28, 2026, 3:40 PM

Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 9.5 (-115)
total · evidence score 88/100 · 2u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 11.3% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 4.3% (6.0-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% release floor. Projected score: 3.93-4.72 (8.65 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Baltimore Orioles 0 @ Detroit Tigers 14 · total 14 vs 9.5

Closing line: 9.5

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