Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 6.8% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (11.4% raw projected EV) and a 5.7-point probability edge versus a 4.1% release floor. The public tier follows that conservative EV after all modeled lineup and calibration uncertainty. Projected score: 4.17-3.95 (8.12 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Baltimore Orioles 5 @ Minnesota Twins 7 · total 12 vs 8.5

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