Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 8.3% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (14.9% raw projected EV) and a 7.5-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. Public strength is capped at 79/1u while calibration is inactive. Projected score: 3.71-4.22 (7.93 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.9-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Chicago White Sox 11 @ Boston Red Sox 12 · total 23 vs 8.5

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