San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 12.8% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 5.3% (7.0-point probability edge) versus a 4.2% release floor. Projected score: 4.22-4.49 (8.71 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.9-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: San Diego Padres 9 @ Arizona Diamondbacks 4 · total 13 vs 9

Available related receipts

• MLB

  San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

  Under 9 9 · 8/3/2026
  win
• MLB

  Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies

  Colorado Rockies · 8/5/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies

  Colorado Rockies +1 1 · 8/5/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros

  Under 8 8 · 8/4/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs

  Los Angeles Dodgers · 8/4/2026
  loss
• MLB

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  Over 7.5 7.5 · 8/4/2026
  loss