MLBAug 29, 2026, 11:20 AM

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 9 (-110)
total · evidence score 72/100 · 1u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.9% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (8.9% raw projected EV) and a 5.2-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The public tier follows that conservative EV after all modeled lineup and calibration uncertainty. Projected score: 3.73-4.71 (8.44 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Cincinnati Reds 5 @ Chicago Cubs 17 · total 22 vs 9

Closing line: 9.5

Available related receipts

See available MLB receipts →

Historical audit coverage

Reviewed original-publication snapshots and visible correction history are available only when they reconcile to a verified archive manifest.

Open the audited historical archive →

Review the current product and featured-pick availability.

View current product →