MLBJun 21, 2026, 10:36 AM

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
New York Yankees -1.5 (+170)
spread · evidence score 65/100 · 2u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

Forge (Scout·Sharp·Model): Sharp 65% strong on market/steam + Scout 55% confirmed. SCOUT and SHARP are aligned on the Yankees -1.5. SCOUT highlights the Yankees' strong recent performance (7-3 L10), home run game, and effective pitching (lower ERA) compared to the Reds. SHARP corroborates this with the Yankees' stronger offense and pitching, despite a negative EV signal. The Pinnacle Fair Line shows the Yankees -1.5 at 35.6% implied probability, which our MODEL identified as a slight edge FOR the Reds +1.5, but SCOUT's and SHARP's qualitative arguments focus on the Yankees' overall strength. The LINE VELOCITY on Yankees -1.5 has seen a price increase, but the SHARP vs PUBLIC data indicates sharps are disagreeing with the public's longer sentiment on the Reds +1.5. Also, the Yankees have a significantly better overall record (46-29) compared to the Reds (36-39) and recent form (7-3 L10 Yankees vs 5-5 L10 Reds). MODEL's confidence was lower (55 for Reds +1.5; implying Yankees -1.5 at 45) but the combined qualitative and market signals leaning Yankees -1.5 support this pick. This pick is a LEAN at 61 confidence, considering the mixed signals from MODEL and EV but strong qualitative agreement. The stake is a LEAN due to mixed signals on EV and the MODEL's lean the other way but is still backed by two agents and historical performance. [SIGNALS FIRED] 2 pattern(s), 2 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 65 (BASIC, expected ROI 41.6%): • ENSEMBLE_SPLIT — 47.2% WR (n≈500): Model disagreement means the edge is less stable than it first appears • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — 57.7% WR (n≈790): Sharp books disagree with the public consensus on the line — primary sharp-money signal

Result notes

Final: Cincinnati Reds 4 @ New York Yankees 1 · margin -3 vs -1.5

Closing line: 1.5

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