Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 9.6% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (14.3% raw projected EV) and a 7.1-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The public tier follows that conservative EV after all modeled lineup and calibration uncertainty. Projected score: 4.62-3.42 (8.04 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Detroit Tigers 2 @ Kansas City Royals 5

Available related receipts

• MLB

  Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers

  Under 7.5 7.5 · 8/21/2026
  win
• MLB

  Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

  Under 7 7 · 8/21/2026
  win
• MLB

  Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers

  Under 8 8 · 8/22/2026
  win
• MLB

  Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres

  Under 8 8 · 8/22/2026
  loss
• MLB

  New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox

  Under 8 8 · 8/23/2026
  win
• MLB

  Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

  Detroit Tigers · 8/23/2026
  loss