Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.1% exact-price projected EV and a 2.5-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The -1.3% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 3.91-3.94 (7.85 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Kansas City Royals 2 @ Houston Astros 4 · margin -2 vs 1.5

Available related receipts

• MLB

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  Under 8.5 8.5 · 9/15/2026
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• MLB

  Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs

  Under 8.5 8.5 · 9/15/2026
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• MLB

  Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

  Under 8 8 · 9/15/2026
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• MLB

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  Seattle Mariners -1.5 -1.5 · 9/15/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

  Under 7.5 7.5 · 9/16/2026
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• MLB

  New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins

  New York Yankees -1.5 -1.5 · 9/16/2026
  loss