Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 13.4% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 10.4% (7.4-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% release floor. Projected score: 3.86-4.78 (8.64 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Kansas City Royals 2 @ Minnesota Twins 3 · total 5 vs 9

Available related receipts

• MLB

  Boston Red Sox @ Athletics

  Under 10 10 · 7/28/2026
  win
• MLB

  Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

  Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 total bases 1.5 · 7/28/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

  Victor Caratini Under 0.5 runs 0.5 · 7/28/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels

  Houston Astros · 7/28/2026
  win
• MLB

  Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants

  Landen Roupp Under 5.5 Ks 5.5 · 7/28/2026
  win
• MLB

  Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants

  Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 total bases 1.5 · 7/28/2026
  win