Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 12.4% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 9.3% (6.5-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% release floor. Projected score: 4.05-3.78 (7.84 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Los Angeles Angels 4 @ San Francisco Giants 3 · total 7 vs 8.5

Available related receipts

• MLB

  New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

  Ben Rice Over 0.5 runs 0.5 · 7/26/2026
  win
• MLB

  Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers

  Under 7 7 · 7/26/2026
  loss
• MLB

  New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

  Will Warren Over 2.5 ER 2.5 · 7/26/2026
  win
• MLB

  New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

  Max Schuemann Over 0.5 total bases 0.5 · 7/26/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers

  George Kirby Over 5.5 Ks 5.5 · 7/27/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds

  Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 hits 0.5 · 7/27/2026
  push