MLBJul 3, 2026, 6:40 PM

Miami Marlins @ Athletics

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Under 10.5 (-105)
total · confidence 72/100
Result
Lost

Why the AI made this pick

The model leans towards the Under 10.5, primarily due to the negative EV for both sides, and no other strong driving signals. The LINE_VELOCITY has stalled for both sides. The Athletics' SP Aaron Civale has a high ERA (5.05) and WHIP (1.58), with recent poor outings (4ER, 2ER, 6ER in L3 starts). The Marlins' SP Sandy Alcantara has a better ERA (4.20) and WHIP (1.28). Both bullpens are fresh. The Athletics L10 RS/g (4.4) and RA/g (5.1) are both close to average. Sized at 3u — confidence 72, with no strong driving signals, making this a lean pick. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4446 / 50.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_COORS_HANGOVER_VISITOR_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=62 / 53.2% WR / unproven • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=18/20) / n=25 / 47.0% WR / unproven • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=159 / 46.2% WR / toxic_fadeable • STEAM_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=50 / 58.0% WR / unproven • STEAM_STALLED — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=42 / 57.1% WR / unproven • CLV_MULTIPLIER_APPLIED — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=19 / 57.9% WR / unproven

Result notes

Final: Miami Marlins 12 @ Athletics 5 · total 17 vs 10.5

Closing line: 10.5

Related picks

See all MLB picks →

No messages yet — be the first.

Sign in to join the chat.

Want the next pick before it locks?

Get live AI picks →