Miami Marlins @ Athletics

Published pick reasoning

The model leans towards the Under 10.5, primarily due to the negative EV for both sides, and no other strong driving signals. The LINE_VELOCITY has stalled for both sides. The Athletics' SP Aaron Civale has a high ERA (5.05) and WHIP (1.58), with recent poor outings (4ER, 2ER, 6ER in L3 starts). The Marlins' SP Sandy Alcantara has a better ERA (4.20) and WHIP (1.28). Both bullpens are fresh. The Athletics L10 RS/g (4.4) and RA/g (5.1) are both close to average. Sized at 3u — confidence 72, with no strong driving signals, making this a lean pick. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4446 / 50.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_COORS_HANGOVER_VISITOR_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=62 / 53.2% WR / unproven • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=18/20) / n=25 / 47.0% WR / unproven • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=159 / 46.2% WR / toxic_fadeable • STEAM_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=50 / 58.0% WR / unproven • STEAM_STALLED — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=42 / 57.1% WR / unproven • CLV_MULTIPLIER_APPLIED — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=19 / 57.9% WR / unproven

Result notes

Final: Miami Marlins 12 @ Athletics 5 · total 17 vs 10.5

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