Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 7.0% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (10.0% raw projected EV) and a 5.9-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The public tier follows that conservative EV after all modeled lineup and calibration uncertainty. Projected score: 4.39-3.95 (8.34 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Miami Marlins 9 @ Kansas City Royals 6 · total 15 vs 9

Available related receipts

• MLB

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  Under 8 8 · 9/3/2026
  loss
• MLB

  New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays

  Under 8 8 · 9/2/2026
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• MLB

  Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

  Boston Red Sox · 9/3/2026
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• MLB

  Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers

  Under 7.5 7.5 · 9/3/2026
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• MLB

  Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals

  Under 9 9 · 9/3/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

  Boston Red Sox -1.5 -1.5 · 9/4/2026
  loss