MLBAug 1, 2026, 1:10 PM

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 9 (-113)
total · evidence score 96/100 · 3u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 14.5% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 8.1% (8.5-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% release floor. Projected score: 3.78-4.23 (8.02 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Miami Marlins 6 @ New York Mets 2 · total 8 vs 9

Closing line: 9

Available related receipts

See available MLB receipts →

Historical audit coverage

Reviewed original-publication snapshots and visible correction history are available only when they reconcile to a verified archive manifest.

Open the audited historical archive →

Review the current product and featured-pick availability.

View current product →