MLBJun 24, 2026, 4:11 PM

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 9.5 (-113)
total · evidence score 71/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

Sized at 2u — The Pinnacle Fair line for Under 9.5 is -104 (50.9%), offering a 4.0% EV. The public bias is PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD, indicating that books are shading towards the UNDER value, thus triggering the PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE signal. The data confidence is 86/100. Both starters have relatively low ERAs (Shane Drohan 3.40, Rhett Lowder 4.82) despite both pitching in a very hitter-friendly park (GABP: Run 112, HR 122). Both bullpens are fresh. The strong EV and public fade on the under are leading signals. [SIGNALS FIRED] 3 pattern(s), 3 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 71 (BASIC, expected ROI 1.6%): • EV_3PCT — 53.6% WR (n≈980): Moderate market EV remains after price shopping • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — 53.3% WR (n≈690): Totals market is shaded by public behavior, making the opposite side attractive • CLV_PRIOR_POSITIVE — 54.8% WR (n≈820): Similar signals have historically beaten the close, supporting a stronger prior

Result notes

Final: Milwaukee Brewers 6 @ Cincinnati Reds 5 · total 11 vs 9.5

Closing line: 9.5

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