MLBJun 25, 2026, 4:11 PM

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Under 8 (-105)
total · confidence 73/100
Result
Lost

Why the AI made this pick

This pick hinges on the dominant performance of Yankees starter Cam Schlittler. He's having an ace-level season with a 1.71 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 10.33 K/9 over 95 innings. His recent form is even better, allowing just two total earned runs in his last three starts. He faces a Red Sox offense that has gone cold, averaging only 3.3 runs per game over their last 10. The weather at Fenway is also pitcher-friendly, with low humidity and a 4mph wind blowing in. While Fenway Park is a hitters' venue, Schlittler's elite form and the favorable weather create a strong environment for an Under. Sized at 1u — confidence 70, a solid situational lean, but held to a smaller stake because the primary signal (MLB_SP_ERA_EDGE) has a poor historical win rate and negative CLV. [SIGNALS FIRED] 5 pattern(s), 3 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 73 (BASIC, expected ROI 2.5%): • MLB_SP_ERA_EDGE — 57.2% WR (n≈420): Starting pitcher run-prevention gap gives our side a real baseball edge • STEAM_STALLED — 51.4% WR (n≈280): Sharp move exhausted; fade the overextended direction • CLV_PRIOR_NEGATIVE — 45.1% WR (n≈610): Similar signals have historically lost closing-line value, so this edge is less trustworthy • CLV_PRIOR_POSITIVE — 54.8% WR (n≈820): Similar signals have historically beaten the close, supporting a stronger prior • LINE_VELOCITY_WITH — 54.1% WR (n≈280): Line drifted consistently in our favor (3-5c over 4+ hours) without a spike — slow smart-money accumulation

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Bad Beat

Final total 9 — landed 1 point from the 8 line.

Result notes

Final: New York Yankees 3 @ Boston Red Sox 6 · total 9 vs 8

Closing line: 8.5

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