MLBJun 25, 2026, 4:11 PM

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Boston Red Sox (+128)
moneyline · confidence 73/100
Result
Won

Why the AI made this pick

The Boston Red Sox are the play here, offering positive EV (+0.1%) contrary to the public's lean towards the New York Yankees. Pinnacle places the Yankees at -128 (56.1%) while their market price is -148, indicating the sharp money is fading the public's side. The Yankees are considered a PUBLIC VILLAIN. While the Yankees boast a slightly better L10 record (6-4 vs 3-7), the Red Sox have kept their last 5 games closer in terms of runs scored (L5 2-3). The Red Sox starting pitcher, Connelly Early (L3 ERA 1.50) has performed better in recent starts than the Yankees' Cam Schlittler (L3 ERA 0.50). This is a strong fade of the public's heavily backed side. Sized at 2u — confidence is good, driven by sharp action and fading the public on a negative EV favorite. [SIGNALS FIRED] 3 pattern(s), 3 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 73 (BASIC, expected ROI 23.3%): • PUBLIC_CONTRARIAN_EV — 53.1% WR (n≈1100): Public bias is pushing value onto the contrarian side • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_ML_DISAGREE — 56.4% WR (n≈290): Sharp moneyline probability disagrees with the public book median — primary sharp-money signal • NARRATIVE_FADE — 52.8% WR (n≈310): The media story is louder than the underlying number, creating a fade opportunity

Result notes

Final: New York Yankees 3 @ Boston Red Sox 6

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