New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 21.3% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 13.4% (9.7-point probability edge) versus a 4.8% release floor. Projected score: 3.42-3.88 (7.30 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: New York Yankees 1 @ Chicago White Sox 2

Available related receipts

• MLB

  Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

  Grant Holmes Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 · 7/30/2026
  win
• MLB

  New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

  Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 RBIs 0.5 · 7/30/2026
  loss
• MLB

  New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

  Luisangel Acuña Over 0.5 total bases 0.5 · 7/30/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

  Jake Irvin Over 4.5 H allowed 4.5 · 7/30/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

  Dominic Smith Over 0.5 total bases 0.5 · 7/30/2026
  win
• MLB

  Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

  José Tena Over 0.5 total bases 0.5 · 7/30/2026
  win