MLBSep 5, 2026, 4:15 PM

New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 7.5 (+100)
total · evidence score 80/100 · 2u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 8.2% exact-price projected EV and a 4.1-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The 3.5% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 3.86-3.57 (7.43 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: New York Yankees 5 @ San Diego Padres 1 · total 6 vs 7.5

Closing line: 7.5

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Historical audit coverage

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