MLBJun 27, 2026, 1:11 PM

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Under 9 (-115)
total · confidence 67/100
Result
Won

Why the AI made this pick

Multiple factors align for an under in this divisional matchup. The market itself provides a clear signal, with a PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD indicating that books are shading their lines toward the under to counter heavy public betting on the over; we'll fade the public here. The matchup features a pitcher-friendly home plate umpire in Doug Eddings, whose games see an average of 0.3 fewer runs. Additionally, the New York Mets offense has been frigid, averaging just 3.8 runs over their last 10 games and riding a five-game losing streak. While the Phillies' bats are hot, they face a competent starter in Christian Scott in a neutral-to-pitcher-friendly park, with the added variable of potential rain showers which can often suppress offense. Sized at 1u — confidence 66, this pick is supported by a confluence of market, umpire, and team form signals. [SIGNALS FIRED] 2 pattern(s), 2 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 67 (BASIC, expected ROI -1.4%): • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — 53.3% WR (n≈690): Totals market is shaded by public behavior, making the opposite side attractive • MLB_UMP_TENDENCY — 52.2% WR (n≈220): Umpire tendencies support this side of the market [RISK] YELLOW: MLB_UMP_TENDENCY has 52.2% WR but only ~220 data points | YELLOW: Mean historical WR 52.8% ≤ implied 53.5% — thin edge vs price

Result notes

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 2 @ New York Mets 6 · total 8 vs 9

Closing line: 9

Related picks

See all MLB picks →

No messages yet — be the first.

Sign in to join the chat.

Want the next pick before it locks?

Get live AI picks →