MLBJun 24, 2026, 3:46 PM

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 9.5 (-115)
total · evidence score 70/100 · 3u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

Sized at 2u — The Pinnacle Fair line for Under 9.5 is -108 (51.9%), offering a 2.9% EV. The public bias is PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD, indicating that books are shading towards the UNDER value, thus triggering the PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE signal. The data confidence is 86/100. The Phillies' starter Aaron Nola has a high ERA (5.71), but the Nationals' starter Carson Palmquist has no stats, making a direct pitching matchup difficult to assess. Both bullpens are tired (Philadelphia 152 pitches / 9.1 IP, Washington 181 pitches / 7.8 IP in last 2d), which could lean towards an over, but the strong EV and public fade on the under are leading signals. [SIGNALS FIRED] 3 pattern(s), 3 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 69 (BASIC, expected ROI -0.1%): • EV_2PCT — 52.2% WR (n≈1400): Best available price still carries a small positive EV vs fair market context • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — 53.3% WR (n≈690): Totals market is shaded by public behavior, making the opposite side attractive • CLV_PRIOR_POSITIVE — 54.8% WR (n≈820): Similar signals have historically beaten the close, supporting a stronger prior [RISK] YELLOW: Mean historical WR 53.4% ≤ implied 53.5% — thin edge vs price

Result notes

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 5 @ Washington Nationals 4 · total 9 vs 9.5

Closing line: 8

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