MLBJun 28, 2026, 10:41 AM

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+115)
spread · confidence 70/100
Result
Lost

Why the AI made this pick

The DATA_CONFIDENCE is low at 55/100, resulting in a -4 penalty. The Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen is TIRED (151 pitches/8.2 IP in last 2d), while the New York Mets' bullpen is FRESH (100 pitches/7.2 IP in last 2d). The starting pitchers are Jesús Luzardo for Philadelphia (ERA 4.00, WHIP 1.30) and Cionel Pérez for New York (ERA 4.99, WHIP 1.37). Luzardo has a significant edge, especially in K/9 (10.72 vs 6.75) and a much better L3 performance with an average of 1.33 ER over 18.2 IP compared to Pérez's 1.0 ER over 6.1 IP. The Phillies are 4-1 in their L5 form, while the Mets are 1-4. Sized at 3u — confidence 70 due to a low data confidence score but a strong pitching advantage. [SIGNALS FIRED] 5 pattern(s), 2 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 67 (BASIC, expected ROI 3.8%): • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — 48.8% WR (n≈43): Missing data lowers certainty; keep confidence capped • MLB_SP_ERA_EDGE — 38.9% WR (n≈37): Starting pitcher run-prevention gap gives our side a real baseball edge • MLB_SP_L3_EDGE — 54.1% WR (n≈300): Recent starting pitcher form supports our side more than the market is pricing • FORM_L5_EDGE — 54.8% WR (n≈500): Recent form is strong and aligns with the matchup rather than just variance • STAB_THRESHOLD_NOT_MET — 44.7% WR (n≈310): The supporting edge is not stable enough to warrant a strong conviction score [RISK] YELLOW: DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW has 48.8% WR but only ~43 data points | YELLOW: MLB_SP_ERA_EDGE has 38.9% WR but only ~37 data points

Result notes

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 5 @ New York Mets 4 · margin +1 vs -1.5

Closing line: -1.5

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